01 // Abstract
Can a valid message that is recorded and sent again make a team of agents with a learned message channel fail? Which defense can detect it? A preregistered CPU test trains teams of two agents on Beacon, a small two-dimensional catch task. The main analysis uses 20 teams.
A speaker sees a beacon that moves and sends a learned message of 64 numbers at each step. A listener with no memory reads the message and moves to catch the beacon. The attacker on the transport only replays recorded messages, and it has no key.
A replay of the step-0 message at every later step (stale replay) cuts the team success from 0.987 to 0.615. The message stream of another episode (foreign replay) cuts it to 0.245, below silence at 0.305. The loss of success is 0.372 (98.75% interval 0.360 to 0.384) and 0.742 (0.733 to 0.751).
A kNN monitor and a PCA monitor, fit on benign messages, cannot flag either replay. On the stale replay, their AUROC is 0.087 and 0.161, so they rank the replay as more typical than benign traffic. Monitors that also read the listener’s own view cannot flag the replays either. A wire monitor cannot read the content, so it cannot see that the content is old or foreign.
A MAC over the message, a session nonce and a step counter rejects both replays. Against the foreign replay, the trained fallback then gives back 0.060 of success. Against the stale replay, the MAC costs 0.308, because a stale message still carries useful content. But the MAC declares each failure. With no defense, 38.5% and 75.5% of the episodes fail silently, and under the MAC no failure is silent. Teams trained with blackout episodes keep 0.137 more success after a rejection than teams trained without them.
A five-step lag costs only 0.030. Thus it is possible that a MAC with an age limit keeps most of the success and still declares the replay. That rule is not tested.
An exploratory analysis of saved runs asks if an influence score can do better. The score measures how far a message moves the answer distribution of the receiver from a reference. On a two-bit toy channel with a 0.36B receiver, it does not separate replayed from benign messages: AUROC 0.524 (95% CI 0.493 to 0.553). The cause is structural: the receiver reads the same query on every row. Thus a replay gives exactly the output of another row’s benign message. The three data sets of this analysis share structure, so its pooled CI is too narrow.
The score is not blind, because content-free random messages have much less influence than benign messages (AUROC 0.058). Thus the score measures how far a message steers the receiver, not if the content fits the input. In the Beacon test, the listener has its own view. There, a similar score gives a replay less influence than a benign message (AUROC 0.365 and 0.463, descriptive).
Limits: the Beacon test is a toy result in one environment, with one algorithm (A2C), small networks and a listener with no memory. The teams are very similar, so the narrow intervals describe this toy only. It is not a result on large language models. The attacker only replays, and no adaptive attacker was tested. The MAC rejections hold by construction; the run measured the success after the fallback. There is one run: a second statistics script in the same project agrees, but no outside party checked the work.
02 // Threat model
03 // Gates
| Gate | Preregistered condition | Result | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Validity gates | At least 18 of 20 teams reach a success of 0.80 and beat silence by at least 0.20. The MAC passes benign traffic unchanged, replays are exact copies, a rerun is equal, and both point monitors flag random messages. Measured: 20 of 20 teams; all checks pass. | [ PASSED ] | b6dfc57421a0… |
| Agreement gate | A second statistics script, with no code from the analysis, recomputes each interval and verdict from the saved per-episode files. All verdicts must agree, and all numbers within 1e-9. Measured: AGREE; largest difference 2.6e-12. | [ PASSED ] | f1781fbc5f79… |
| Q1 Replay harms the team | HARM if the mean loss of success is at least 0.10 and the lower bound of its 98.75% interval is above 0.05. Measured: stale replay 0.372 (0.360 to 0.384); foreign replay 0.742 (0.733 to 0.751). Verdict: HARM for both. | [ PASSED ] | b6dfc57421a0… |
| Q2 Point monitors flag the replay | FLAGS needs a mean AUROC of at least 0.90 (lower bound above 0.80) and a TPR at 1% FPR of at least 0.50. CANNOT FLAG: upper bound below 0.70 and TPR below 0.05. Measured: kNN 0.087 (stale) and 0.502 (foreign); PCA 0.161 and 0.508; TPR at most 0.012. Verdict: CANNOT FLAG. | [ FAILED ] | b6dfc57421a0… |
| Context monitors flag the replay | Secondary rule: the Q2 thresholds with 95% intervals. These monitors also read the previous message, the position and the local view of the listener. Measured: kNN 0.274 and 0.294; PCA 0.033 and 0.506. Verdict: CANNOT FLAG. | [ FAILED ] | b6dfc57421a0… |
| Q3 MAC, foreign replay | MAC HELPS if the mean gain in success is at least 0.05 and the lower bound of its 98.75% interval is above 0. Measured: +0.060 (0.051 to 0.069). Verdict: MAC HELPS. | [ PASSED ] | b6dfc57421a0… |
| Q3 MAC, stale replay | The same rule. Measured: -0.308 (-0.324 to -0.291). Verdict: MAC HURTS, because a stale message still carries useful content and the MAC rejects it. | [ FAILED ] | b6dfc57421a0… |
| S3 Trained fallback | Secondary rule: success under the MAC on the foreign replay, teams trained with blackout episodes minus teams trained without them. At least 0.05, with a 95% lower bound above 0. Measured: +0.137 (0.129 to 0.145). Verdict: FALLBACK TRAINING HELPS. | [ PASSED ] | b6dfc57421a0… |
| Influence score separates the replay | Exploratory; the rule was frozen before the run. The score separates replay from benign messages if the 95% CI of the AUROC is above 0.60. The outcome is E-NULL if the CI is inside 0.40 to 0.60. Measured: 0.524 (0.493 to 0.553). Outcome: E-NULL. | [ FAILED ] | 5ba8495e9b68… |
04 // Destructive controls
| Arm | What it removes | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Silence | The whole message. The listener gets the zero vector at every step. | Success 0.305 (correct 0.987) |
| Random message | The content. A new random vector of norm 8 at each step. | Success 0.176; monitors flag it (AUROC 1.000) |
| Benign traffic through the MAC | The replay. Correct messages go through the tag check. | 0 rejections; success equal to correct |
| No fallback training | The blackout episodes in training. The listener never gets silence before the test. | Success after a rejection 0.168 (trained 0.305) |
| Content-free message (influence) | The content. A norm-matched random message on the toy channel. | AUROC 0.058 against benign |